Could Apple's iPhone SDK = Adobe's AIR?

So this is pure conjecture, but it struck me this evening: Could Apple's much-anticipated iPhone SDK in fact be Adobe's AIR (Adobe Integrated Runtime)?

The arguments in favor of this possibility:

• Apple wants an SDK that will protect the core iPhone runtime. Jobs made a very specific point during his announcement of the iPhone SDK that Apple has to make very sure that whatever SDK they release isn't going to allow third-party applications to crash the iPhone. AIR provides a separate runtime for applications that function very much like (at least on a Mac or PC) desktop applications: there's support for file system access, drag and drop from the host operating system, a simple, local database, and more. You can make rich, desktop applications using AIR with a very low likelihood of crashing the host OS.
• Consumers and developers alike have been demanding support for Flash on the iPhone since it launched last year. AIR is built on top of the Flash player (and brings PDF reading support to the table as well), so if AIR is the solution that's chosen, Flash becomes possible/enabled within Safari on the iPhone. That would make a whole lot of people happy.
• The iPhone OS is not the same as Mac OS X. It's not clear that you could compile applications in Objective-C and get them running on the iPhone. AIR lets you write applications in Flex, Flash, or HTML/JavaScript. This is a path that Apple has already begun to push developers down with the initial release of the iPhone, claiming that developers should write Web-based applications.
• Safari is based on WebKit. AIR uses WebKit as its HTML rendering engine.
• Apple has gotten consumers used to taking "Web pages" from Safari in the iPhone and turning them in to icons on the main iPhone screen. They could easily customize Safari on the iPhone to offer the same option when AIR installation badges are discovered on Web pages that users surf to using Safari on the iPhone.
• It's unlikely that Apple would allow third-party developers to tap in to phone functionality even if their SDK isn't based on AIR. That's the domain of AT&T and AT&T, I'm sure, will do everything in their power to control the data and services that relate to phone activity. Of course, if Apple's iPhone SDK is AIR, then third-party developers could write VoIP applications, even those using libraries like Ribbit. I don't think Apple cares about that. AT&T does, but Apple just wants to sell more devices and get people using the Internet with their devices. AT&T ultimately needs Apple and Apple's exclusive agreement with them than Apple needs AT&T.
• Apple will want a secure, controlled way of delivering third-party applications to the iPhone. AIR allows for certificates and digital signing. Adobe plans to have a marketplace for AIR applications, and Apple could use iTunes to do the same thing.
• Just a coincidence: Apple's iPhone SDK is due at the end of February. Adobe have made it quite clear that they're winding down Flex 3 and AIR 1.0 development right now. The timing is interesting.

The arguments against this possibility:

• The more developers who write in Objective-C for the iPhone, the more developers who know Objective-C, and the more developers who could then write for the Mac OS (and any device that runs the Mac OS, including the AppleTV).
• Apple will want a secure, controlled way of delivering third-party applications to the iPhone. Apple will probably use iTunes for this. They wouldn't want anyone else delivering applications to users of the iPhone, as control of the whole experience (from opening the box to making your first call) is critical to their corporate culture. Letting people install applications from any Web page with an AIR install badge would probably not sit too well with them.
• Putting Flash on the iPhone helps bolster the supremacy of Flash Video. Apple has a lot invested in QuickTime, and uses QuickTime to deliver its audio and video content (including anything that plays on an iPod). Apple is banking on broadband connections to deliver HD content anywhere, using MP4 codecs played back within QuickTime. I'm not so sure they're willing to cede that to Adobe by putting Flash on the iPhone.

• The Flash player may be too power consumptive for good performance on the iPhone. I doubt this, because QuickTime decodes video just fine on the iPhone, but it's possible.

I'm sure there are more arguments against this, but it's an interesting possibility.

Comments?